The upside-down world of interest rates became even more contorted in August. Approximately a third of all government and corporate debt now carries a negative yield.
Markets have been fuelled by a decade of bailouts and dovish monetary policy. It’s hard to ignore the importance of this fact and how it has characterised the current economic expansion.
Uncertainty about trade and populist policies continues to weigh on market sentiment and business confidence. Some economic indicators are weakening in 2019 from the relatively positive position in 2018.
The abrupt increase in US tariffs on imports from China threatens the nascent recovery in global industrial production that appeared to be underway. Tariffs and tariff fears have a large impact on high frequency data such as trade, industrial production, business investment, PMIs, and many highly correlated financial asset prices. Roughly half of China’s exports to the United States face 25% tariffs.
We are cautiously positive on equities because economies around the world are still expanding at decent rates and there are no apparent inflation trends.
